 Someone has leaked a draft of the upcoming Supreme Court decision, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, apparently written in February, that had to do with state restrictions of abortion. If the final decision is not significantly revised, the Supreme Court will finally have overturned Roe v. Wade.
Pro-life people are ecstatic, and with good reason. The Court, we hear, will return the matter to the states' legislatures. The decision, then, may not change abortion practice that much: red states will tend to have few or no legal abortions, and blue states will likely have slightly more. It will lead to a significant, though not likely massive, reduction in abortion numbers, however, as many people will not cross state lines to get the abortions that were available at home. (The Texas "heartbeat law," which prevents abortions after a heartbeat can be detected, has reduced abortion numbers 50 - 60%, though some women have gone to neighboring states for abortions. While abortion drugs are readily available online, many women will not break the law. The President of Heartbeat International, an association of pregnancy help centers, has observed that some women in Texas have expressed gratitude that they didn't have the choice to abort -- which points to the pressures on women to do what they really don't want.) Let's look further down the road: the Supreme Court is just putting off a decision that should apply to all the states, and not be left to them individually. (I think we can assume that Congress will not have the courage and fortitude to deal with the issue head on, though it should.) While the Court may be politically attuned (or cautious), the inner logic of any moral prohibition of abortion demands a Court ruling, if you have any law, anywhere, protecting the child from the abortionist. If what is in the womb has the moral status of an appendix, then the law should back off and let medical professionals decide about abortion. If the moral status of that which is in the womb is unknown, but possibly that of a human being, the courts have an obligation to defend what may be a person, another one of us. (In short, those for permitting abortion have to show that that a pregnancy does not involve an individual human being. The hunter can't just shoot at anything that moves in the forest. He has to know that it's not another hunter.) Attempts to say when in pregnancy the state has "a compelling interest" to forbid abortion, on the grounds that the child should be protected at that stage, are in reality arbitrary: e.g., why 6 months (Roe), and not 5 months, or 4 months, when a life is on the line? A legal person inside another legal person is a challenge to the imagination, especially early in pregnancy. It is also a challenge, admittedly, to the legal tradition, but it is perhaps an inevitable development, and the Equal Protection clause of the 14th Amendment will eventually apply, at least to the question of taking the child's life. Compare our fight to the history of other issues before the Court, like race. From Wikipedia on the "equal protection clause": "The Equal Protection Clause is part of the first section of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The clause, which took effect in 1868, provides 'nor shall any State ... deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.' . . . "A primary motivation for this clause was to validate the equality provisions contained in the Civil Rights Act of 1866, which guaranteed that all citizens would have the guaranteed right to equal protection by law. As a whole, the Fourteenth Amendment marked a large shift in American constitutionalism, by applying substantially more constitutional restrictions against the states than had applied before the Civil War." States surrendered their decision-making power as the Court saw the 14th Amendment entailing more uniform treatment of white and black peoples in more and more areas of life (accommodation, housing, education, etc. (https://historycollection.com/5-us-supreme-court-cases-defined-race/4/). The Court, I submit, will eventually have to deal with the issue at the federal level; it can only be politics that holds it back at this point. A good day. Let's hope and pray that the Court will stand firm. Chris Humphrey, Ph.D.
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The Good News, Obvious and Hidden, in the PA Health Department’s Abortion Report for 2020 |
A big wave on the beach, not the tide | There is no evidence yet of a statistical trend, and it is quite likely that 2019 is simply a bigger wave on the beach, and not the tide. Because the tide is definitely going out, as I will show below. The statistics for the rest of Pennsylvania indicate that this uptick is not local, but state-wide. |
When we compare abortions to residents in Allegheny County to those to residents in Philadelphia County, where 40% of Pennsylvania’s abortions are performed, we see that both saw an uptick in abortion ratios.
More than 1 out of 3 pregnancies ended in abortion in Philadelphia County | It is shocking to realize that in Philadelphia County, more than 1 out of 3 pregnancies ended in abortion in 2019 (562 abortions per 1,000 births). In Allegheny County, 1 out of 5 pregnancies ended in abortion. Before we began advertising, that ratio was about 1 out of 4. |
What else do we learn from the report?
Abortion patients are getting older
It is common for people to think that the average abortion patient is a teenager who made a mistake. There are, of course, some teenagers in that category, but most abortions are to adult women. The PA Abortion Report tells us that “more than 87 percent (27,221) of the abortions performed in Pennsylvania in 2019 were to unmarried women. The largest age group having abortions was 25–29, accounting for 9,529 (29.9 percent) of all 2019 abortions.” In fact, the trend over the last many years has been for younger women as a group to have fewer abortions, and older ones to have more.
The increase in abortions is entirely more abortions to women over 24 | The increase in abortions in Pennsylvania in 2019 is entirely because of more abortions to women over 24. This has implications for anybody working in pregnancy help. |
Fewer women without children are having abortions | While 2019 breaks with the trend, the abortion trend for women who have had no previous child, or have had one child only, is downwards. There is a slight increase, however, in the number of abortions to women who have had 3 or 4 children or more. This suggests that anxiety over finances and accommodation may be making abortion appealing to them. |
High rate of multiple abortions | “First abortions” are a slight majority of all abortions again in 2019, at 52.6% of all abortions. “Repeat abortions” are almost half of all abortions. |
What may surprise some is the high rate of multiple abortions. More than 1 out of 10 abortions is the woman’s fourth abortion, or more. Is abortion being used as a method of birth control here? Are there psychological problems that lead women to abort repeatedly?
The percentages have been generated by Excel using data for first and previous abortions from the Department of Health. For some reason, the percentages do not total to 100.
The death knell of the abortion industry | It is clear, however, that the trend with all abortions is downward. While 2019 is an outlier, the number of first abortions is actually declining faster than repeat abortions. This is the death knell of the abortion industry. |
In Allegheny County the birth rate was positive or stable | The bottom line is that, though abortion ratios in Allegheny County and Philadelphia County ticked upwards, in Allegheny County the birth rate was positive or stable over the period. |
Letting them know that they have a choice | This is good news. It shows that advertising for pregnancy help directs more women to pregnancy medical centers where they can see their unborn children on the ultrasound machine. About 80% of those who do, choose life. Advertising reaches tens of thousands more each month, letting them know that they have a choice, that abortion is not the only solution. The results are big enough to show up in birth numbers. We estimate that about 8,400 more children were born between 2010 and 2018 than would have been if we had not advertised the centers. You can help bring the numbers down. Please consider donating today. It costs us less than $44 to save a life! Share this blog post to help us reach more people who care about saving moms and unborn children from abortion. |
Measuring Success
From the time I (Chris Humphrey) became involved in pro-life work, back in the late 1970's, I have been concerned about making a difference, and not just a statement. We've had 46 years or so since Roe v. Wade to make a difference with our protests and education, and we've had very little success, if we're honest. It's true, we've seen great progress in state regulation of abortion, which frustrates some who want to see abortion banned outright. However, these state regulations have had, at most, a 5% effect on the ratios of abortions to live births.
What is amazing, however, has been the decline in abortion numbers -- rates and ratios to births, too -- since about 1984. There's little question, to my mind, that it's pregnancy help that has accomplished this. (See earlier articles.) The ratios are lower now than they were back in 1973. With first-time customers declining in number faster than "repeat customers," the abortion business is dying. Thank God.
The fact that our advertising has had a demonstrable effect on the abortion ratios in Allegheny County confirms that it is pregnancy help that has driven numbers lower everywhere. The pregnancy medical centers, and the women and men at Choices Pregnancy Services and Women's Choice Network, are the heroes of the story. Without the centers, we would have nothing to advertise. Just tell women not to have abortions? It's done all the time, but there's no reason to think that it changes many minds.
From the beginning of our work with Vision for Life, I have wanted to measure the effect of what we are doing. If we're making a difference, how do we know? Our best resources here are the State Health Department figures: the birth numbers and the abortion numbers.
What is amazing, however, has been the decline in abortion numbers -- rates and ratios to births, too -- since about 1984. There's little question, to my mind, that it's pregnancy help that has accomplished this. (See earlier articles.) The ratios are lower now than they were back in 1973. With first-time customers declining in number faster than "repeat customers," the abortion business is dying. Thank God.
The fact that our advertising has had a demonstrable effect on the abortion ratios in Allegheny County confirms that it is pregnancy help that has driven numbers lower everywhere. The pregnancy medical centers, and the women and men at Choices Pregnancy Services and Women's Choice Network, are the heroes of the story. Without the centers, we would have nothing to advertise. Just tell women not to have abortions? It's done all the time, but there's no reason to think that it changes many minds.
From the beginning of our work with Vision for Life, I have wanted to measure the effect of what we are doing. If we're making a difference, how do we know? Our best resources here are the State Health Department figures: the birth numbers and the abortion numbers.
What do we measure?
Of course, we measure abortions. But how do we measure the effects of what we are doing in Allegheny County from just after Christmas in 2010 to 2018, the last year for which we have abortion numbers?
If abortion numbers are going down everywhere, it's clear that we can't just point to declining numbers in Allegheny County and say that our work caused that. We have to compare numbers with numbers. Our first concern is that pregnancy numbers are going down everywhere: if fewer women are getting pregnant, then of course abortion numbers will go down if the ratio of abortions to births remains the same. So we want to measure the ratio of abortions to births: if they are lower in Allegheny County after we have done our work, then we know roughly how effective advertising is. The ratios of abortions to live births fell 26% from 2010 to 2018 in Allegheny County, compared to 15% in the rest of PA, and 13% in Philadelphia County (where 40% of PA's abortions are performed).
If abortion numbers are going down everywhere, it's clear that we can't just point to declining numbers in Allegheny County and say that our work caused that. We have to compare numbers with numbers. Our first concern is that pregnancy numbers are going down everywhere: if fewer women are getting pregnant, then of course abortion numbers will go down if the ratio of abortions to births remains the same. So we want to measure the ratio of abortions to births: if they are lower in Allegheny County after we have done our work, then we know roughly how effective advertising is. The ratios of abortions to live births fell 26% from 2010 to 2018 in Allegheny County, compared to 15% in the rest of PA, and 13% in Philadelphia County (where 40% of PA's abortions are performed).
Translating predictions into Approximate numbers of lives Saved
We know that we are succeeding: many more young women are choosing life rather than abortion because we are advertising. We can quantify the effect, approximately. There is a certain abstract character to numbers of "abortions to live births," however. How do we keep before our eyes the fact that moms and babies are being delivered from abortion by our work? One way is to take an educated guess at how many lives have been saved.
To do this we again need numbers to compare: actual numbers, and predicted numbers. The predicted numbers are approximations, representing a possible mathematical center in a range of possibilities. There are two basic ways of making these comparisons, that I can see. One looks at past trends over the years (determined mathematically by Microsoft Excel), and extrapolates these into the period in which we were working, and then compares those numbers with the actual numbers. There is an assumption made, here: the period 2011 to 2019, and especially the period 2011-2013, when numbers fell sharply, was basically similar to the previous 25 years. There were no new developments in pro-life work, or changes in sexual mores, or availability of abortion, or of pregnancy help, and so forth. Another assumption is that the deviation from the norm of abortion numbers for the period will not be extreme. Here's what we get when we chart the numbers. As you can see, Excel predicts that by 2019 there were about 10,600 fewer abortions, based on the trend of the previous 25 years. By this point in 2021, we can be assume by the same analysis that there have been well over that.
To do this we again need numbers to compare: actual numbers, and predicted numbers. The predicted numbers are approximations, representing a possible mathematical center in a range of possibilities. There are two basic ways of making these comparisons, that I can see. One looks at past trends over the years (determined mathematically by Microsoft Excel), and extrapolates these into the period in which we were working, and then compares those numbers with the actual numbers. There is an assumption made, here: the period 2011 to 2019, and especially the period 2011-2013, when numbers fell sharply, was basically similar to the previous 25 years. There were no new developments in pro-life work, or changes in sexual mores, or availability of abortion, or of pregnancy help, and so forth. Another assumption is that the deviation from the norm of abortion numbers for the period will not be extreme. Here's what we get when we chart the numbers. As you can see, Excel predicts that by 2019 there were about 10,600 fewer abortions, based on the trend of the previous 25 years. By this point in 2021, we can be assume by the same analysis that there have been well over that.
But what if there were changes outside allegheny county?
The assumption of predictions of the future (even a "future" in the past, so to speak) based on past performance is that there have been no significant changes that would affect those predictions. We can't "control" for all the things happening around us, especially regarding an issue that is at once very personal, emotional, and controversial, with relational and socio-economic factors beyond our ken. Do women in one period view abortion more as a moral failure, and in another period more as a necessary wrong? Has a disillusionment with abortion affected recourse to it?
So perhaps a better gauge of the effect of advertising is to compare the rates of change in Allegheny County to those in all the other Pennsylvania counties. If there are social and cultural changes that affect abortion numbers generally, it is unreasonable to think that women in Allegheny County would be immune to them. So we can take the percentage change of abortion numbers in the rest of PA, and apply them to the numbers in Allegheny County, beginning with 2010 as the base year. Then we can subtract the actual numbers from these projections to get our number of saved lives. When we do, we find that there were about 9,600 fewer abortions in the 9 years from 2011 to 2019. That's over 1,000 fewer abortions every year. By the end of 2020, there would have been well over 10,000 fewer abortions.
So perhaps a better gauge of the effect of advertising is to compare the rates of change in Allegheny County to those in all the other Pennsylvania counties. If there are social and cultural changes that affect abortion numbers generally, it is unreasonable to think that women in Allegheny County would be immune to them. So we can take the percentage change of abortion numbers in the rest of PA, and apply them to the numbers in Allegheny County, beginning with 2010 as the base year. Then we can subtract the actual numbers from these projections to get our number of saved lives. When we do, we find that there were about 9,600 fewer abortions in the 9 years from 2011 to 2019. That's over 1,000 fewer abortions every year. By the end of 2020, there would have been well over 10,000 fewer abortions.
The Numbers all point to the same conclusion
It is striking that the number of lives saved is not that far from the 10,600 that Excel predicted. It is fewer in this prediction, because Excel could not take into consideration that abortion numbers were falling elsewhere in PA. Without advertising, numbers in Allegheny County would have fallen, presumably, about the same as elsewhere. The abortion ratio numbers we have, however, point to the same conclusion: numbers and ratios were falling in Pennsylvania as a whole in 2011-2019, but they fell significantly faster in Allegheny County, and stayed lower overall, because of the advertising.
Birth Numbers point the same way, too
Another way to measure success is to look at birth numbers. If there are fewer abortions in Allegheny County, you would expect birth numbers to go up, or at least not to fall as fast. In fact, birth numbers rose after we began our work, and settled in 2019 a little bit higher than they were in 2010. If we apply the same technique of projecting past performance on the 2011-2019 period, we see a phenomenal difference between those projections and the actual birth numbers -- an amazing 11,259!
Again, however, this leaves unanswered the question, What's happening elsewhere in Pennsylvania? If birth rate are falling, are they continuing to fall as fast as before?
So we want to see what Allegheny County's birth numbers would have been if they had changed at the same rate as the rest of PA, and then compare that to the actual numbers. It's still impressive.
So we want to see what Allegheny County's birth numbers would have been if they had changed at the same rate as the rest of PA, and then compare that to the actual numbers. It's still impressive.
The 5,079 births is lower than the projected 9,600 fewer abortions. Why? Wouldn't one fewer abortion in the County mean one more birth?
No. About half of the 6,000 abortions a year in Allegheny County are to non-residents. So the women who would have had abortions in Allegheny County, but didn't, were not all residents of Allegheny County. Some came from surrounding counties. Many would have been students, and would have gone home or elsewhere to have their children. So this chart is the least helpful in knowing how many unborn children were saved from abortion. Births as a whole, too, are less reliable as an indicator. Yet both birth projections point to the same result: thousands of lives have been saved by advertising pregnancy medical centers in Pittsburgh.
No. About half of the 6,000 abortions a year in Allegheny County are to non-residents. So the women who would have had abortions in Allegheny County, but didn't, were not all residents of Allegheny County. Some came from surrounding counties. Many would have been students, and would have gone home or elsewhere to have their children. So this chart is the least helpful in knowing how many unborn children were saved from abortion. Births as a whole, too, are less reliable as an indicator. Yet both birth projections point to the same result: thousands of lives have been saved by advertising pregnancy medical centers in Pittsburgh.
A Caveat
Our calculations for abortion numbers do not take into consideration the proportion of early pregnancies that would end in miscarriage if abortion were declined. There are no sure numbers here, as most early miscarriages do not involve a trip to the doctor. I have heard that between 17% and 32% of pregnancies end in miscarriage. So the number of births would likely have been smaller than our predictions using the abortion numbers.
Miscarriage is a tragedy, felt to varying degrees as such, often depending on the age of the child in utero or on the temperament of the woman. It is still important that a woman who miscarried did not have an abortion instead, because she knows that at least she did not participate in the killing of her child.
Miscarriage is a tragedy, felt to varying degrees as such, often depending on the age of the child in utero or on the temperament of the woman. It is still important that a woman who miscarried did not have an abortion instead, because she knows that at least she did not participate in the killing of her child.
What do we conclude?
| Advertising pregnancy medical centers is the way forward in reducing abortion numbers everywhere. What we spend is small compared to the budgets of the large and well-run pregnancy medical centers. The effect of advertising, however, is much greater than one would expect from the money spent. God has opened doors for us, and provided people to help when we needed them, and provided the funds needed to save lives, and we have done our part. The results have been very encouraging, and we thank God. There are thousands more children out there who wouldn't have been, if we had not advertised the centers. We calculate that it cost us, in total, $ 42 to save a life using advertising. | We Calculate |
a personal note . . .
I have three daughters and nineteen grandchildren. (Yes, when everybody's together, it can be like the Mad Hatter's Tea Party). I take great delight in my grandkids. They come to me to roughhouse (which at my age I can still do for short periods). I want many others to have the joy I have had in my kids and grandchildren. Children are challenges; I learned when I was raising them that the children make the father, too. Yet they are a tremendous blessing, one I hope that many others may have. If you can help us share this blessing with others through our work, please donate today.
Fewer Women Wanting Them, Not Less “Access,” Is Driving the Decline
Pro-choice advocates imply that state abortion restrictions are a main reason that abortion numbers have fallen across the country. Ohio is a good example: Elizabeth Nash of the Guttmacher Institute notes that “Ohio is a testing ground for abortion restrictions.” So in 2019, Ohio passed a law prohibiting abortion once the baby’s heartbeat could be detected, unless it were to save the mother’s life or a major bodily function were threatened. The human heart begins to beat about 16 days after conception, but the heartbeat is usually detectable only sometime between six and eight weeks of gestation. Planned Parenthood and others sued, and the heartbeat law is in legal limbo until the lawsuit is resolved. Other laws are in force, however, including informed consent (the woman has to be told in person what the medical procedure entails, at least 24 hours before the abortion); a 24-hour waiting period; parental consent in the case of minors; and the limiting of public funding to those whose lives are at risk, or who conceived as a result of rape or incest. These and similar restrictions, it is implied, explain why Ohio’s abortion numbers are down from 34,128 in 2005 to 20,425 in 2018, or 40%.
The Guttmacher Institute, formerly the research wing of Planned Parenthood, and its many fellow-travelers tell us that these state laws limit abortion “access,” that is, they make it more difficult for women to get the abortions they want. The chief reason for lack of access, we are to assume, is the decline in the number of clinics near women who need them. On the Institute’s web page for Ohio, it presents its information tellingly under the headings: “Abortion Incidence,” “Where Patients Obtain Abortions,” and “Restrictions on Abortion.” We are to note that, in 2017, 89% of U.S. counties had no abortion clinics, though 38% of America’s reproductive-age women lived there. As a result, women wanting abortions would have to travel to get them.
The Guttmacher Institute, formerly the research wing of Planned Parenthood, and its many fellow-travelers tell us that these state laws limit abortion “access,” that is, they make it more difficult for women to get the abortions they want. The chief reason for lack of access, we are to assume, is the decline in the number of clinics near women who need them. On the Institute’s web page for Ohio, it presents its information tellingly under the headings: “Abortion Incidence,” “Where Patients Obtain Abortions,” and “Restrictions on Abortion.” We are to note that, in 2017, 89% of U.S. counties had no abortion clinics, though 38% of America’s reproductive-age women lived there. As a result, women wanting abortions would have to travel to get them.
State Restrictions aren't driving the decline
One of the articles cited on the Ohio page changes the picture, however. “Abortion Incidence and Service Availability in the United States, 2017,” presents the same implicit argument – fewer abortion centers must mean hardship for women, and thus fewer abortions – but then admits that the number of centers is not a factor in declining abortion rates. “Although the number of state abortion restrictions continued to increase in the Midwest and South between 2014 and 2017, these restrictive policies do not appear to have been the primary driver of declining abortion rates. There was also no consistent relationship between increases or decreases in clinic numbers and changes in state abortion rates” (emphasis added). So Delaware, for example, had more abortion centers in 2017 than in 2014, but its abortion rate dropped 37% anyway. “States considered to be supportive of abortion rights in 2017 – including large states such as California and New York – accounted for 43% of all U.S. abortions in that year but 55% of the decline [in abortion rates] since 2014.” “Abortion rates declined in all 10 states that had more clinic facilities in 2017 than they did in 2014 . . . . Half of these states had not enacted any abortion restrictions during the study period.” It is to their credit that the authors of the study looked at the evidence and reported this observation, as inconsistent as it is with the mantra of reduced-access-means-fewer-women-get- abortions.
Many on the pro-life side would be inclined to discount the claim that the restrictions aren’t driving the drop: “See, the pro-abortion crowd just wants to discourage pro-life political activity, because it’s working.” Is it? Yes, the laws have their measurable effects on abortion numbers, as political scientist Michael New has shown repeatedly, though altogether these would be less than 5%. Moreover, the effect of a change in the law would be a one-time decrease in abortion numbers. There is no reason to think that, say, the new requirement of a 72-hour waiting period would have an increasing or cumulative effect on the ratios of abortions to live births in following years. As good as all these laws are, from the pro-life perspective, the Guttmacher researchers are right: the restrictive laws are not the primary driver of declining abortion rates and ratios.
Many on the pro-life side would be inclined to discount the claim that the restrictions aren’t driving the drop: “See, the pro-abortion crowd just wants to discourage pro-life political activity, because it’s working.” Is it? Yes, the laws have their measurable effects on abortion numbers, as political scientist Michael New has shown repeatedly, though altogether these would be less than 5%. Moreover, the effect of a change in the law would be a one-time decrease in abortion numbers. There is no reason to think that, say, the new requirement of a 72-hour waiting period would have an increasing or cumulative effect on the ratios of abortions to live births in following years. As good as all these laws are, from the pro-life perspective, the Guttmacher researchers are right: the restrictive laws are not the primary driver of declining abortion rates and ratios.
Focusing on Supply; Ignoring DemanD
The problem with the “lack of access” claim is that the abortion-on-demand crowd are only looking at the supply side of the supply-and-demand relation: those state legislatures, they think, are dominated by men who want to dominate women, and are gradually cutting off the supply. (In reality, those legislatures usually have a share of women legislators, a large portion of whom are pro-life.) Ratios of abortions to live births have been dropping continuously for decades across the country – 49% from 1984 to 2016 – independently of changes to the law or the numbers of clinics. What if the decrease in clinic numbers and abortions reflects a decline in demand for abortion? What if the decline in the number of abortion clinics reflects market forces, and not government intervention? Jonah Goldberg makes a similar point about assumptions with the current coronavirus: to explain the less-than-catastrophic number of new cases and deaths, compared to earlier predictions, people either argue that the government overstated the likely cases and deaths, or that it was government action that “flattened the curve.” He argues for an alternative: when given accurate information in a timely way, people themselves act in a way that has better consequences for everybody.
contraception isn't the driver
What could be responsible for dropping demand? Guttmacher and its supporters would say that it is contraception. Fewer women need abortions because of better contraceptives (the long-acting kind), better contraceptive practices, or more widespread use of contraceptives. The evidence, however, doesn’t back this up. If it were so, better contraception would mean that fewer pregnancies would be unexpected or unintended. Researchers, however, found that “changes in contraceptive method choice and use have not decreased the overall proportion of pregnancies that are unintended between 1995 and 2008” (emphasis in the original). In fact, the proportion of these unexpected pregnancies went up 1%, from 48 to 49%. Here, the ratios of abortions to live births are a good measure of demand: while abortion rates (abortions per 1,000 women 15-44) would fall if pregnancy rates fell, the ratios tell us what proportion of pregnant women chose abortion rather than birth. According to the CDC reports, over the same thirteen-year period in the study described above, the ratios of abortions to live births dropped from 31.1 to 23.1 per 100 live births, or 26%. While there are other studies which seem to show a drop in unexpected pregnancies or births, or a certain volatility, so speak, there is no long-term trend in either that parallels the decrease in ratios of abortions to live births. While social-scientific surveys of women’s intentions and the statistics of abortions both have their problems, the latter, at least in terms of establishing a trend, are more trustworthy. Contraceptive use, then, is not driving down the numbers either.
So why is abortion dying in america?
So is there a candidate for the main driver of falling abortion ratios? Drum roll, please . . . . The increase in pregnancy help centers across America, now over 2,750, is the only candidate that lines up in terms of timing and trajectory. The number of centers increased sharply from 1982 to 1986, and continued upward to the present. In his horribly titled Abortion Rites: A Social History of Abortion in America, Marvin Olasky argued that it was mainly pregnancy help (in the form of maternity homes in that day) that reduced the very high abortion rates of the late-19th Century. We are seeing the same thing today.
The pro-choice side knows very well that pregnancy help centers are having an effect on abortion, and some activists have attempted to defame the centers as deceptive, oppressive of women in their religiosity, and unscientific in their information. (In fact, it is the representatives for abortionists who obscure the early development of the child in the womb with terms like “a clump of cells,” or “a blob of tissue.” For an answer to the pro-choice criticisms of the centers, see Heartbeat International’s pregnancycentertruth.com. I am on the Board of Heartbeat.) Abortion is big business, and business is down. The reality is that most women do not want abortions. This is what women who come to pregnancy help centers say themselves. (They come to the centers “abortion-vulnerable” or “abortion-determined,” in the centers’ terminology.) For many, abortion appears to be a necessary evil, to be gotten through numbly, with as little thought and reflection as possible. The centers help them do what they admit they really wanted: to bear their children. Pregnancy medical centers have very high customer-satisfaction ratings. Hundreds of thousands, are deeply grateful for the help they have received at these centers, and their endorsements are simply unanswerable. While technically it may not be true that “no one ever says ‘Thank You’ to an abortionist,” the number would be minuscule by comparison.
If these centers are the main driver for dropping abortion ratios, then advertising the centers should drive ratios even further down. This, in fact, is what we have found in Pittsburgh (Allegheny County). From 2010 to 2018, non-profit Vision for Life advertised two local pregnancy medical center organizations, with five centers and two mobile units between them. Abortion ratios for residents dropped sharply in the first two years, remained relatively stable for several years more, and then dropped again in 2018. The decline overall was 26%. The ratios are the lowest they’ve been since the State began recording them in 1995, and likely the lowest in a half-century. There is no reason to think that ratios would not fall further with more advertising.
The pro-choice side knows very well that pregnancy help centers are having an effect on abortion, and some activists have attempted to defame the centers as deceptive, oppressive of women in their religiosity, and unscientific in their information. (In fact, it is the representatives for abortionists who obscure the early development of the child in the womb with terms like “a clump of cells,” or “a blob of tissue.” For an answer to the pro-choice criticisms of the centers, see Heartbeat International’s pregnancycentertruth.com. I am on the Board of Heartbeat.) Abortion is big business, and business is down. The reality is that most women do not want abortions. This is what women who come to pregnancy help centers say themselves. (They come to the centers “abortion-vulnerable” or “abortion-determined,” in the centers’ terminology.) For many, abortion appears to be a necessary evil, to be gotten through numbly, with as little thought and reflection as possible. The centers help them do what they admit they really wanted: to bear their children. Pregnancy medical centers have very high customer-satisfaction ratings. Hundreds of thousands, are deeply grateful for the help they have received at these centers, and their endorsements are simply unanswerable. While technically it may not be true that “no one ever says ‘Thank You’ to an abortionist,” the number would be minuscule by comparison.
If these centers are the main driver for dropping abortion ratios, then advertising the centers should drive ratios even further down. This, in fact, is what we have found in Pittsburgh (Allegheny County). From 2010 to 2018, non-profit Vision for Life advertised two local pregnancy medical center organizations, with five centers and two mobile units between them. Abortion ratios for residents dropped sharply in the first two years, remained relatively stable for several years more, and then dropped again in 2018. The decline overall was 26%. The ratios are the lowest they’ve been since the State began recording them in 1995, and likely the lowest in a half-century. There is no reason to think that ratios would not fall further with more advertising.
How long till no demand for abortion?
Abortion is dying in America. The abortion industry is consolidating. Abortion is less available in many counties because the demand is just not great enough to sustain a business. In Pennsylvania, the numbers of “repeat” abortions (a woman’s second, third, or more, and about half of all abortions) have been decreasing for years, but first-time abortions have been falling faster. Without more first-time customers, a business is on the way out. The state is probably representative of the country here. The questions then becomes, How low can the U.S. numbers go? How soon will “abortion on demand” become “abortion: no demand”?
(While this article was written for The Word, the Antiochian Orthodox Christian magazine that I edit for Bishop JOHN Abdallah, and will appear in the June issue, readers from other church backgrounds may find it helpful.)
It is a commonplace among military historians that the Allied armies of the First and Second World Wars prepared in each case to fight the last war. The steady advance of troops towards the enemy made sense, before the First World War and the Maxim machine gun put an end to that. Trench warfare made sense, before the mechanized blitzkrieg, or “lightning war,” of the Second World War made lines of trenches useless.
It is a commonplace among military historians that the Allied armies of the First and Second World Wars prepared in each case to fight the last war. The steady advance of troops towards the enemy made sense, before the First World War and the Maxim machine gun put an end to that. Trench warfare made sense, before the mechanized blitzkrieg, or “lightning war,” of the Second World War made lines of trenches useless.
If you want to depict a really wicked enemy, you make him a Nazi
The same is true when we think of great evils, of moral conflicts in which many, many lives are lost. If you want to depict a really wicked enemy in some piece of fiction, someone whom everyone knows they should hate, you make him a Nazi, a relic of the past. In the Twentieth Century, Nazism and Communism both offered alternative views of human beings and societies, and justified atrocious crimes against humanity on grounds of an over-arching theory (a master race in the first instance, or a “new man” created by dialectical materialism in the second). These were the only serious social-political contenders against the European Christian view of man and society. Nazism killed about six million Jews, as well as others, and the Communist system under Stalin killed somewhere between 20 and 40 million people, while the Chinese Communist government killed about 65 million of its own people in the last century, and continues, for example, to run concentration camps, and to murder prisoners of conscience for organ transplants today.
These great evils have been nationalist ideologies. What of today, however? Are there Nazis anymore? Is there a comparable, great moral evil, at least in scale?
These great evils have been nationalist ideologies. What of today, however? Are there Nazis anymore? Is there a comparable, great moral evil, at least in scale?
The rejection of God has opened the door to a “cafeteria” paganism and individualist subjectivism
To look for popular, dehumanizing, nationalist ideologies today, however, is to try to fight the last war. Over the last fifty years, the contender for the minds and hearts of the developed world has not been a replacement political ideology, but secularism (an attempt to “disinfect” society of religion). Not surprisingly, the rejection of God and of a Christian view of humankind in public expression has opened the door to a “cafeteria” paganism and individualist subjectivism. So Supreme Court Justice Kennedy, in the 1992 Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision, wrote infamously that, “at the heart of liberty is the right to define one’s own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe and of the mystery of human life.” Here is subjectivism in a nutshell.
More individual human beings have been killed in abortion
than in any other way
In casting off the “shackles of religion,” secularism leads not merely to nonsense, but to dehumanization. Where are the victims, comparable to those of Nazism and Communism? It may be a surprise to learn that more individual human beings have been killed in abortion than in any other way, in all of history, and most of that killing has taken place in the last 50 years. (The bulk of that killing has taken place in China and India. Together they are responsible for 24 to 25 million abortions a year.)
Abortion, like genocide and other crimes, has been around a long time. The modern novelty has been technology. Mass killing by the Nazis was made possible by the railroad and road transport, and followed the example of the earlier Armenian genocide. The atom bomb dropped on Japanese cities was a technological marvel. Suction machines were first used to destroy unborn children in utero in Communist Russia in 1922, and spread to the West. Currently in the U.S. there are about a million abortions a year. Entrepreneurial abortionists have been able for decades to perform a series of such suction abortions in rapid succession. Now chemical abortion promises to make the self-induced abortion common, and more difficult to trace.
Note that our “enemy” in the new moral “war” is not a particular religion or ideology. As Orthodox Christians, we celebrate the unique conception of Jesus Christ, “incarnate of the Holy Spirit and the Virgin Mary,” at the Feast of the Annunciation, on March 25. We also celebrate the conception of the Most Holy Theotokos on December 9, and that of St. John the Baptist on September 23. We are predisposed by our faith to see things properly. We could make secular arguments, of course. We could argue that every individual human being began his or her existence in this world at his or her conception. Conception is the only neat point at which life can be said to begin.[1] (Here we have not a potential life, but a new life with potential.) If our imaginations have a hard time recognizing the very early individual life, at the blastocyst stage, say, as a new member of the human family, that is a problem of our imagination, not in reality. (The human being is never just a depersonalized “clump of cells.”) We could mention that the human heart starts beating about sixteen days after conception, about the time when mom is beginning to suspect she’s pregnant. We could say all these things, and we would be right: here is another one of us.
Abortion, like genocide and other crimes, has been around a long time. The modern novelty has been technology. Mass killing by the Nazis was made possible by the railroad and road transport, and followed the example of the earlier Armenian genocide. The atom bomb dropped on Japanese cities was a technological marvel. Suction machines were first used to destroy unborn children in utero in Communist Russia in 1922, and spread to the West. Currently in the U.S. there are about a million abortions a year. Entrepreneurial abortionists have been able for decades to perform a series of such suction abortions in rapid succession. Now chemical abortion promises to make the self-induced abortion common, and more difficult to trace.
Note that our “enemy” in the new moral “war” is not a particular religion or ideology. As Orthodox Christians, we celebrate the unique conception of Jesus Christ, “incarnate of the Holy Spirit and the Virgin Mary,” at the Feast of the Annunciation, on March 25. We also celebrate the conception of the Most Holy Theotokos on December 9, and that of St. John the Baptist on September 23. We are predisposed by our faith to see things properly. We could make secular arguments, of course. We could argue that every individual human being began his or her existence in this world at his or her conception. Conception is the only neat point at which life can be said to begin.[1] (Here we have not a potential life, but a new life with potential.) If our imaginations have a hard time recognizing the very early individual life, at the blastocyst stage, say, as a new member of the human family, that is a problem of our imagination, not in reality. (The human being is never just a depersonalized “clump of cells.”) We could mention that the human heart starts beating about sixteen days after conception, about the time when mom is beginning to suspect she’s pregnant. We could say all these things, and we would be right: here is another one of us.
"And who is my neighbor?"
Still, being right is usually not enough to overcome the secularist mindset, in which the defenseless victim is an embarrassment or an inconvenience. “And who is my neighbor?” our interlocutor asks. “I don’t want to think about this silent, little thing in ontological no-man’s-land. I see what I want to see, and my will rules.” This is less a problem of the head than of the heart. It is not surprising that since 1997 the General Social Survey has found that public support for abortion on demand has hovered at around 40 percent. If education about pregnancy and abortion were enough to convince people, that number would have dropped.
We cannot fight the last war – Nazism and Communism as ideologies are dead. We can, however, look at how courageous men (and women) have stood up to evil, and be encouraged to emulate them. During the Nazi occupation of Greece, the Orthodox Archbishop of Athens and All Greece, His Beatitude Damaskinos, signed a letter addressed to the Prime Minister, who was collaborating with the Nazis. The letter was a courageous defense of the Greek Jews who were being rounded up and deported to Poland to be exterminated. When the Germans continued with the deportations, His Beatitude called the Police Chief of Athens, Angelos Evert, to his office and told him, “I have taken up my cross. I spoke to the Lord, and made up my mind to save as many Jewish souls as possible.”
We cannot fight the last war – Nazism and Communism as ideologies are dead. We can, however, look at how courageous men (and women) have stood up to evil, and be encouraged to emulate them. During the Nazi occupation of Greece, the Orthodox Archbishop of Athens and All Greece, His Beatitude Damaskinos, signed a letter addressed to the Prime Minister, who was collaborating with the Nazis. The letter was a courageous defense of the Greek Jews who were being rounded up and deported to Poland to be exterminated. When the Germans continued with the deportations, His Beatitude called the Police Chief of Athens, Angelos Evert, to his office and told him, “I have taken up my cross. I spoke to the Lord, and made up my mind to save as many Jewish souls as possible.”
"Our prelates are hung, not shot. Please respect our traditions!"
When S.S. General Jürgen Stroop, police official for Greece, found out about the letter, he threatened to shoot His Beatitude. The Archbishop (with historical oppression by the Turks in mind) told the German officer that “according to the traditions of the Greek Orthodox Church, our prelates are hung and not shot. Please respect our traditions!” His Beatitude would not be stopped. Chief Evert issued false identification cards and Archbishop Damaskinos ordered the churches to issue false baptismal certificates to those threatened with deportation. In Athens and the port city of Piraeus, Christians hid Jews in their homes. The result of their work was the rescue of 66 percent of the Jews of Athens.[2]
The courage of the past often looks simple to us: he saw what was right, and did it. That, however, is what happens when we look back from the present: we air-brush away the complications, the uncertainties, the betrayals, even the doubts. Did no one ask the Archbishop, “What will happen if they don’t shoot you, but take some priests off to Poland to die? What will you do then?” Did others say, “Why are we getting involved in politics? We should just keep our heads down and submit, as Christ did, to the authorities.” “His Kingdom is not of this world. This will all pass.” “Your business is our eternal souls, and the churches and the monasteries, not this trouble.” “Who cares about the Jews? In any case, they can take care of themselves.”
The courage of the past often looks simple to us: he saw what was right, and did it. That, however, is what happens when we look back from the present: we air-brush away the complications, the uncertainties, the betrayals, even the doubts. Did no one ask the Archbishop, “What will happen if they don’t shoot you, but take some priests off to Poland to die? What will you do then?” Did others say, “Why are we getting involved in politics? We should just keep our heads down and submit, as Christ did, to the authorities.” “His Kingdom is not of this world. This will all pass.” “Your business is our eternal souls, and the churches and the monasteries, not this trouble.” “Who cares about the Jews? In any case, they can take care of themselves.”
If we had been there, we would have known what to do,
and done it
We are tempted to think that it was easy for the heroes of the past to know what was right, and to do it. If we had been there, we would have known what to do, and have done it, just like them. The Lord Jesus implied just this dynamic when He said, “Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for you build the tombs of the prophets and adorn the monuments of the righteous, saying, ‘If we had lived in the days of our fathers, we would not have taken part with them in shedding the blood of the prophets.’” In Jesus’ time, the dreadful irony was that those who admired their prophetic predecessors would have been among those who killed them, if they had lived in that day. Our challenge is to see things clearly in our day, to do what we can in the moral war of our day, as the people we admire would have, if they were here now.
“I . . . made up my mind to save as many . . . souls as possible.” We can do the same, in our day. With abortion, we are not only saving the lives of the babies: we are preventing a soul-destroying act by the woman. We are already seeing success in America. Pregnancy help centers are the chief reason that abortion numbers have been declining since 1984. At those centers that have ultrasound machines, they can show the pregnant woman the child in her womb. The sonographer shows the woman the flicker of her baby’s beating heart, or the outline of his or her head, or his or her thumb-sucking. There can be tears. This is often enough, with care and support, for women to change their minds – about 85 percent do so. Truth and love have power, and hearts are opened to life.
Zoe for Life! is one Orthodox organization that is saving as many souls as possible, in Parma, Ohio (near Cleveland), and in Ann Arbor, Michigan. New chapters are starting in Binghamton, New York, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Go to https://www.zoeforlife.org for more information on Zoe.) Zoe for Life! is endorsed by the Assembly of Canonical Orthodox Bishops of the United States, and that is good.
“I . . . made up my mind to save as many . . . souls as possible.” We can do the same, in our day. With abortion, we are not only saving the lives of the babies: we are preventing a soul-destroying act by the woman. We are already seeing success in America. Pregnancy help centers are the chief reason that abortion numbers have been declining since 1984. At those centers that have ultrasound machines, they can show the pregnant woman the child in her womb. The sonographer shows the woman the flicker of her baby’s beating heart, or the outline of his or her head, or his or her thumb-sucking. There can be tears. This is often enough, with care and support, for women to change their minds – about 85 percent do so. Truth and love have power, and hearts are opened to life.
Zoe for Life! is one Orthodox organization that is saving as many souls as possible, in Parma, Ohio (near Cleveland), and in Ann Arbor, Michigan. New chapters are starting in Binghamton, New York, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Go to https://www.zoeforlife.org for more information on Zoe.) Zoe for Life! is endorsed by the Assembly of Canonical Orthodox Bishops of the United States, and that is good.
We need to translate our good intentions into actions
But it is not enough. Like Archbishop Damaskinos, we need to translate our good intentions into action – time, energy, and money, devoted to saving the vulnerable. If there is no Orthodox organization in your area that is doing this, start one. If none is likely to start, work with other Christians to reach women in your community. Look up your local pregnancy medical centers. Meet their executive directors. Donate to the centers. Volunteer with them. Advertise them. (Vision for Life - Pittsburgh, of which I am the Executive Director, has seen a 26 percent drop in ratios of abortions to live births after we started advertising two local pregnancy medical center organizations. Thousands of babies have been born who would not have been, if we had not run our ads.)
Our hierarchs, too, could lead as did Archbishop Damaskinos, in practical, pro-life pregnancy help, at the very least with funding, and with the very public blessing of the centers. Our parish priests could put the names and phone numbers of the centers in their weekly bulletins, for, as the founders of Zoe were told, unmarried Orthodox women will seek an abortion rather than face embarrassment in their local parishes. A member of the Board of Zoe for Life! - Pittsburgh tells me that a priest’s daughter in another state became pregnant as a teen and was pressured by members of the parish to have an abortion, but she and her family were pro-life and decided to keep the baby. That baby is now grown up, married, and has a successful career.
Clergy and youth workers in every parish need to have the same open heart, the same courage and forthrightness, as had Archbishop Damaskinos when pressured by the Nazis. In terms of sheer numbers, we live in the Age of Abortion. As Orthodox Christians, clergy and lay, we can rise to the challenge and fight the right war. We can do something to “save as many souls as possible.”
Our hierarchs, too, could lead as did Archbishop Damaskinos, in practical, pro-life pregnancy help, at the very least with funding, and with the very public blessing of the centers. Our parish priests could put the names and phone numbers of the centers in their weekly bulletins, for, as the founders of Zoe were told, unmarried Orthodox women will seek an abortion rather than face embarrassment in their local parishes. A member of the Board of Zoe for Life! - Pittsburgh tells me that a priest’s daughter in another state became pregnant as a teen and was pressured by members of the parish to have an abortion, but she and her family were pro-life and decided to keep the baby. That baby is now grown up, married, and has a successful career.
Clergy and youth workers in every parish need to have the same open heart, the same courage and forthrightness, as had Archbishop Damaskinos when pressured by the Nazis. In terms of sheer numbers, we live in the Age of Abortion. As Orthodox Christians, clergy and lay, we can rise to the challenge and fight the right war. We can do something to “save as many souls as possible.”
Rescue those who are being taken away to death;
hold back those who are stumbling to the slaughter.
If you say, “Behold, we did not know this,”
does not he who weighs the heart perceive it?
Does not he who keeps watch over your soul know it,
and will he not requite man according to his work?
(Proverbs 24:11–12)
[1] Some claim that the new, genetically unique individual human being is not a person before implantation in the uterus, because he or she is not a yet “person in relation” to his or her mother. (Persons, we are told, must be in relation, as are the Persons of the Trinity.) This claim is specious. By this standard, would we say that St. Mary of Egypt ceased to be a person after years in the desert? Is the seriously mentally and physically handicapped person, incapable of communication, still a person? If it is true that “not one [sparrow] is forgotten before God,” every conceived human being, at whatever stage of life, is known to Him (Luke 12:6). What purpose could this pernicious depersonalization serve? Could it be used to justify the use of abortifacients like the IUD, which prevent implantation, or potential abortifacients, like the morning-after pill, which may stop ovulation, but can prevent implantation of the newly conceived person?
[2] https://blog.acton.org/archives/77044-the-greek-orthodox-bishop-who-stood-up-to-the-nazis.html
[2] https://blog.acton.org/archives/77044-the-greek-orthodox-bishop-who-stood-up-to-the-nazis.html
Author
Chris Humphrey has been involved in pro-life activity of one kind or another since the late 1970s, when he first looked at the subject of abortion in seminary in Canada. He has an undergraduate degree in English (University of Toronto), and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in religious studies (McGill). He has had a varied career as a pastor, chaplain in a psychiatric hospital, editor of academic and instructional publications, semi-professional photographer, and home renovator. He is a husband of over 40 years to Edith (a Professor of New Testament), father to three girls, and grandfather to seventeen grandchildren. He lives and works in the Stanton Heights neighborhood of Pittsburgh.
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